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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandre Pantoja won · SUB R3

Elo1523

Elo1361

Alexandre PantojavsNeil SeeryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Sunday, July 16, 2017Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:31

Model Prediction: Neil Seery wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Seery at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandre Pantoja has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Neil Seery

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1523

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Neil Seery

oldest →

vs Phil Harris · Jul 14

vs Chris Beal · Jan 15

vs Louis Smolka · Jul 15

SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Oct 15

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · May 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricNeil Seery

4.38

Strikes / min

3.56

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

49%

Strike defense

58%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.78

69%

Takedown defense

53%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaNeil Seery

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Neil Seery(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +161.8|Blue -161.8

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -265.0|Blue +265.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetNeil Seery

By target zone

39% acc · 48%

Head

42% acc · 88%

70% acc · 32%

Body

78% acc · 9%

86% acc · 20%

Leg

75% acc · 4%

By position

46% acc · 70%

Distance

43% acc · 83%

80% acc · 29%

Clinch

63% acc · 15%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Neil Seery rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns1

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes67

Takedowns0

Control1:49

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:16

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

119 / 227

Sig Strikes

82 / 183

50%

Sig Str %

43%

131 / 239

Total Strikes

90 / 192

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:26

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Neil Seery	29 / 78	32 / 82	0 / 2	0
1	Alexandre Pantoja	45 / 99	46 / 100	0 / 0	0
2	Neil Seery	47 / 90	49 / 92	0 / 0	0
2	Alexandre Pantoja	67 / 113	70 / 116	0 / 0	0
3	Neil Seery	6 / 15	9 / 18	0 / 0	0
3	Alexandre Pantoja	7 / 15	15 / 23	1 / 1	1

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Neil Seery

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7