Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandre Pantoja won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1523

Elo1465

Alexandre PantojavsMatt SchnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, December 21, 2019Busan, South Korea

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:17

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Schnell wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Schnell at +159 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandre Pantoja threatens submissions; Matt Schnell has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Alexandre Pantoja has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Matt Schnell

Blue Corner

-181

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+159

(39%)

1523

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricMatt Schnell

4.38

Strikes / min

4.07

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

49%

Strike defense

55%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.60

69%

Takedown defense

43%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaMatt Schnell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.0|Blue -58.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetMatt Schnell

By target zone

53% acc · 94%

Head

37% acc · 80%

Body

33% acc · 10%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

50% acc · 79%

Distance

36% acc · 90%

Clinch

88% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Matt Schnell rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control1:12

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 62

Sig Strikes

20 / 52

54%

Sig Str %

38%

36 / 64

Total Strikes

35 / 68

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Schnell	20 / 52	35 / 68	0 / 1	0
1	Alexandre Pantoja	34 / 62	36 / 64	1 / 1	0

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18