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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandre Pantoja won · U-DEC

Elo1523

Elo1558

Alexandre PantojavsManel KapeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Saturday, February 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

U-DEC

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsManel Kape: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(74.8%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Manel Kape

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1523

Elo

1558

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Manel KapeW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricManel Kape

4.38

Strikes / min

5.04

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

49%

Strike defense

57%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.40

69%

Takedown defense

81%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaManel Kape

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Manel Kape(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.8|Blue +34.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetManel Kape

By target zone

33% acc · 36%

Head

47% acc · 73%

68% acc · 35%

Body

100% acc · 16%

75% acc · 28%

Leg

71% acc · 10%

By position

49% acc · 97%

Distance

54% acc · 100%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Manel Kape rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:21

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:02

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 149

Sig Strikes

49 / 91

49.7%

Sig Str %

54.3%

77 / 152

Total Strikes

51 / 94

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Manel Kape	12 / 20	14 / 23	0 / 1
1	Alexandre Pantoja	25 / 49	26 / 50	0 / 1
2	Manel Kape	16 / 35	16 / 35	1 / 3
2	Alexandre Pantoja	29 / 50	30 / 51	0 / 0
3	Manel Kape	21 / 36	21 / 36	1 / 3
3	Alexandre Pantoja	20 / 50	21 / 51	0 / 0

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11