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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexandre Pantoja won · SUB R3

Elo1523

Elo1495

Alexandre PantojavsKai Kara-FranceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:55

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsKai Kara-France: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(83.0%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandre Pantoja threatens submissions; Kai Kara-France has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kai Kara-France has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Kai Kara-France

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1523

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Jul 23

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 21

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricKai Kara-France

4.38

Strikes / min

4.46

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

49%

Strike defense

64%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.56

69%

Takedown defense

83%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaKai Kara-France

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Kai Kara-France(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.4|Blue -27.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetKai Kara-France

By target zone

46% acc · 67%

Head

49% acc · 68%

100% acc · 24%

Body

80% acc · 21%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

54% acc · 95%

Distance

55% acc · 92%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Kai Kara-France rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:45

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control1:04

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:31

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 76

Sig Strikes

38 / 67

53%

Sig Str %

59.7%

70 / 107

Total Strikes

57 / 86

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:20

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kai Kara-France	8 / 13	14 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Alexandre Pantoja	7 / 13	29 / 38	1 / 2	1
2	Kai Kara-France	22 / 42	22 / 42	0 / 1	0
2	Alexandre Pantoja	29 / 51	34 / 56	1 / 2	0
3	Kai Kara-France	8 / 12	21 / 25	0 / 1	0
3	Alexandre Pantoja	6 / 12	7 / 13	1 / 2	1

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11