Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Alexandre Pantoja won · SUB R2
Elo1523
Elo1504

Alexandre PantojavsKai AsakuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:05

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(83.9%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alexandre Pantoja threatens submissions; Kai Asakura has lost 100% of fights by sub.
  • Alexandre Pantoja has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja
Red Corner
VS
Kai Asakura
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1523
Elo
1504
36
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja
oldest →
W
vs Brandon Moreno · Jul 23
W
vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23
W
vs Steve Erceg · May 24
W
SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25
L
KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25
latest
Kai Asakura
oldest →
L
SUBvs Tim Elliott · Aug 25
W
KOvs Cameron Smotherman · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricKai Asakura
4.38
Strikes / min
2.27
3.88
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
49%
Strike defense
52%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
0.00
69%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-1.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1629 vs 1500Strikes4.4 vs 0.0Takedowns2.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Alexandre PantojaKai Asakura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601483150515281550← oldermost recent →
Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Kai Asakura(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +18.9|Blue -18.9
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetKai Asakura

By target zone

15
45% acc · 47%
Head
10
50% acc · 59%
5
100% acc · 16%
Body
5
83% acc · 29%
12
86% acc · 38%
Leg
2
67% acc · 12%

By position

30
60% acc · 94%
Distance
17
61% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Alexandre Pantoja rounds
0
even
0
Kai Asakura rounds
Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns2
Control1:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control1:46
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
32 / 52
Sig Strikes
17 / 29
48%
Sig Str %
61.5%
33 / 53
Total Strikes
30 / 44
3 / 7
TDs
0 / 0
41.5%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:46
Ctrl Time
0:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kai Asakura15 / 2627 / 400 / 00
1Alexandre Pantoja31 / 4932 / 502 / 40
2Kai Asakura2 / 33 / 40 / 00
2Alexandre Pantoja1 / 31 / 31 / 31

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Kai Asakura

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4