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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Joshua Van won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1523

Elo1599

Alexandre PantojavsJoshua VanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:26

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsJoshua Van: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(81.8%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Van at +176 American odds

+$176 profit

$276 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandre Pantoja enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Joshua Van

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+176

(36%)

1523

Elo

1599

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre PantojaW5 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Jul 23

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

latest

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Durden · Dec 24

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricJoshua Van

4.38

Strikes / min

8.43

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

5.82

49%

Strike defense

58%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.82

69%

Takedown defense

75%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap+2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaJoshua Van

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Joshua Van(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -76.3|Blue +76.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetJoshua Van

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 83%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Joshua Van rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 11

Sig Strikes

2 / 4

54%

Sig Str %

50%

6 / 11

Total Strikes

2 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joshua Van	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Alexandre Pantoja	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 0	0

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11