Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandre Pantoja won · S-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1491

Alexandre PantojavsEric SheltonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsEric Shelton: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Eric Shelton wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eric Shelton at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eric Shelton has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alexandre Pantoja has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Eric Shelton

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1523

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Eric Shelton

oldest →

vs Jarred Brooks · Jul 17

vs Jenel Lausa · Nov 17

vs Alex Perez · Feb 18

vs Joseph Morales · Nov 18

vs Jordan Espinosa · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricEric Shelton

4.38

Strikes / min

2.57

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

1.88

49%

Strike defense

63%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

2.83

69%

Takedown defense

46%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.69

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Eric Shelton(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.4|Blue -31.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetEric Shelton

By target zone

33% acc · 73%

Head

34% acc · 97%

60% acc · 16%

Body

33% acc · 3%

57% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 86%

Distance

34% acc · 91%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 5%

Ground

75% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Eric Shelton rounds

Round 1Eric Shelton edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:06

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:42

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 3Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 99

Sig Strikes

32 / 93

37.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

67 / 135

Total Strikes

44 / 107

1 / 3

TDs

4 / 12

25%

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:48

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eric Shelton	8 / 21	12 / 26	3 / 3	0
1	Alexandre Pantoja	8 / 22	16 / 30	0 / 0	0
2	Eric Shelton	9 / 23	17 / 32	1 / 6	0
2	Alexandre Pantoja	12 / 29	34 / 57	1 / 2	2
3	Eric Shelton	15 / 49	15 / 49	0 / 3	0
3	Alexandre Pantoja	17 / 48	17 / 48	0 / 1	0

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Eric Shelton

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6