← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Deiveson Figueiredo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1483

Alexandre PantojavsDeiveson FigueiredoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Saturday, July 27, 2019Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Deiveson Figueiredo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsDeiveson Figueiredo: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Deiveson Figueiredo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Deiveson Figueiredo

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1523

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Deiveson FigueiredoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Petr Yan · Nov 24

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · May 25

vs Montel Jackson · Oct 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 26

SUBvs Song Yadong · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricDeiveson Figueiredo

4.38

Strikes / min

2.63

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

49%

Strike defense

49%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

1.61

69%

Takedown defense

57%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaDeiveson Figueiredo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Deiveson Figueiredo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.1|Blue -40.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetDeiveson Figueiredo

By target zone

34% acc · 67%

Head

54% acc · 79%

64% acc · 15%

Body

92% acc · 18%

73% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

37% acc · 79%

Distance

59% acc · 69%

68% acc · 21%

Clinch

58% acc · 16%

0% acc

Ground

63% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Deiveson Figueiredo rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:45

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Deiveson Figueiredo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Deiveson Figueiredo edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:10

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 151

Sig Strikes

67 / 113

40%

Sig Str %

59.3%

68 / 160

Total Strikes

71 / 117

2 / 10

TDs

2 / 3

23.3%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

1:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	18 / 30	19 / 31	1 / 1
1	Alexandre Pantoja	22 / 52	22 / 52	1 / 5
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	22 / 43	23 / 44	0 / 1
2	Alexandre Pantoja	19 / 48	25 / 55	1 / 2
3	Deiveson Figueiredo	27 / 40	29 / 42	1 / 1
3	Alexandre Pantoja	20 / 51	21 / 53	0 / 3

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Deiveson Figueiredo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20