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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandre Pantoja won · SUB R2

Elo1523

Elo1511

Alexandre PantojavsBrandon RoyvalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Saturday, August 21, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:46

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsBrandon Royval: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandre Pantoja has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Brandon Royval

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1523

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricBrandon Royval

4.38

Strikes / min

5.54

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.25

49%

Strike defense

43%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.65

69%

Takedown defense

45%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaBrandon Royval

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Brandon Royval(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.3|Blue -12.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetBrandon Royval

By target zone

51% acc · 86%

Head

23% acc · 71%

100% acc · 14%

Body

60% acc · 18%

Leg

67% acc · 12%

By position

55% acc · 95%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Brandon Royval rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control1:49

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:02

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 40

Sig Strikes

17 / 61

56%

Sig Str %

24%

23 / 41

Total Strikes

27 / 79

3 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:51

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Royval	14 / 39	19 / 51	1 / 1	0
1	Alexandre Pantoja	13 / 25	14 / 26	2 / 4	0
2	Brandon Royval	3 / 22	8 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Alexandre Pantoja	9 / 15	9 / 15	1 / 2	2

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13