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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexandre Pantoja won · U-DEC R5

Elo1523

Elo1511

Alexandre PantojavsBrandon RoyvalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsBrandon Royval: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandre Pantoja has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Brandon Royval

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1523

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Jul 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricBrandon Royval

4.38

Strikes / min

5.54

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.25

49%

Strike defense

43%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.65

69%

Takedown defense

45%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaBrandon Royval

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Brandon Royval(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.3|Blue -12.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetBrandon Royval

By target zone

49% acc · 52%

Head

102

53% acc · 92%

73% acc · 23%

Body

78% acc · 6%

96% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

57% acc · 78%

Distance

51% acc · 82%

83% acc · 5%

Clinch

83% acc · 5%

80% acc · 17%

Ground

71% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Brandon Royval rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control2:50

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control3:44

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:13

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 4Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control4:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 5Brandon Royval edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns2

Control2:43

55Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 156

Sig Strikes

111 / 204

50.6%

Sig Str %

55.2%

126 / 195

Total Strikes

281 / 390

8 / 14

TDs

0 / 1

61.2%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

15:51

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexandre Pantoja	27 / 40	29 / 42	1 / 2	0
1	Brandon Royval	13 / 30	40 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Brandon Royval	12 / 16	80 / 90	0 / 0	0
2	Alexandre Pantoja	10 / 15	24 / 30	2 / 3	0
3	Brandon Royval	24 / 46	63 / 86	0 / 1	0
3	Alexandre Pantoja	17 / 26	23 / 38	2 / 5	0
4	Brandon Royval	7 / 14	28 / 38	0 / 0	0
4	Alexandre Pantoja	0 / 1	1 / 3	1 / 2	1
5	Alexandre Pantoja	41 / 74	49 / 82	2 / 2	0
5	Brandon Royval	55 / 98	70 / 115	0 / 0	0

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13