Flyweight

3 Rounds

Askar Askarov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1495

Alexandre PantojavsAskar AskarovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, July 18, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Askar Askarov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsAskar Askarov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Askar Askarov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Askar Askarov

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1523

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Askar Askarov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Jan 20

vs Joseph Benavidez · Mar 21

vs Kai Kara-France · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricAskar Askarov

4.38

Strikes / min

3.05

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

49%

Strike defense

57%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

2.60

69%

Takedown defense

66%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaAskar Askarov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Askar Askarov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.9|Blue -27.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetAskar Askarov

By target zone

43% acc · 53%

Head

58% acc · 76%

63% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

50% acc · 94%

Distance

63% acc · 83%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

83% acc · 12%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Askar Askarov rounds

Round 1Askar Askarov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control1:20

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:25Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:41

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 3Askar Askarov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:16

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 62

Sig Strikes

41 / 63

52%

Sig Str %

67.7%

40 / 71

Total Strikes

44 / 66

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 15

50%

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

5:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Askar Askarov	5 / 6	6 / 7	1 / 7
1	Alexandre Pantoja	1 / 2	7 / 9	0 / 0
2	Askar Askarov	10 / 20	11 / 21	1 / 6
2	Alexandre Pantoja	13 / 22	14 / 23	1 / 1
3	Askar Askarov	26 / 37	27 / 38	0 / 2
3	Alexandre Pantoja	18 / 38	19 / 39	0 / 1

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Askar Askarov

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4