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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandr Romanov won · SUB

Elo1506

Elo1402

Alexandr RomanovvsRoque MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Saturday, September 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandr Romanov won

SUB

Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Alexandr Romanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandr Romanov at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandr Romanov threatens submissions; Roque Martinez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Roque Martinez has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexandr Romanov

Red Corner

Roque Martinez

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1506

Elo

1402

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandr Romanov

oldest →

vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24

latest

Roque MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 20

vs Josh Parisian · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandr RomanovMetricRoque Martinez

3.78

Strikes / min

3.28

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

4.90

54%

Strike defense

56%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

0.38

28%

Takedown defense

53%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.65Δ 3.27 — meaningful gap-1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandr RomanovRoque Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Roque Martinez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +104.3|Blue -104.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandr RomanovTargetRoque Martinez

By target zone

34% acc · 85%

Head

30% acc · 43%

100% acc · 15%

Body

Leg

80% acc · 57%

By position

80% acc · 7%

Distance

50% acc · 86%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 14%

35% acc · 91%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandr Romanov rounds

even

Roque Martinez rounds

Round 1Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns3

Control4:26

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:49

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 147

Sig Strikes

7 / 15

36.5%

Sig Str %

47%

60 / 160

Total Strikes

29 / 41

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roque Martinez	4 / 7	17 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Alexandr Romanov	33 / 87	37 / 99	3 / 3	1
2	Roque Martinez	3 / 8	12 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Alexandr Romanov	22 / 60	23 / 61	1 / 1	1

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Roque Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3