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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandr Romanov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1506

Elo1500

Alexandr RomanovvsRodrigo NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Saturday, November 2, 2024Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Alexandr Romanov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexandr Romanov: WrestlervsRodrigo Nascimento: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(71.7%)

Actual result: Alexandr Romanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandr Romanov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rodrigo Nascimento has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).
Rodrigo Nascimento has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandr Romanov

Red Corner

Rodrigo Nascimento

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1506

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandr Romanov

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Apr 22

vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24

latest

Rodrigo Nascimento

oldest →

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jul 21

vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22

vs Ilir Latifi · May 23

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandr RomanovMetricRodrigo Nascimento

3.78

Strikes / min

3.71

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

54%

Strike defense

44%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

1.02

28%

Takedown defense

60%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.65Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandr RomanovRodrigo Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.1|Blue -6.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandr RomanovTargetRodrigo Nascimento

By target zone

45% acc · 82%

Head

25% acc · 61%

60% acc · 7%

Body

78% acc · 23%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

49% acc · 87%

Distance

33% acc · 97%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

40% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandr Romanov rounds

even

Rodrigo Nascimento rounds

Round 1Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns4

Control4:47

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:46

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 92

Sig Strikes

31 / 91

48%

Sig Str %

54.7%

87 / 135

Total Strikes

48 / 108

6 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

43.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:33

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rodrigo Nascimento	1 / 1	4 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Alexandr Romanov	2 / 5	32 / 36	4 / 5	1
2	Rodrigo Nascimento	10 / 34	24 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Alexandr Romanov	17 / 28	26 / 37	2 / 4	0
3	Rodrigo Nascimento	20 / 56	20 / 56	0 / 0	0
3	Alexandr Romanov	26 / 59	29 / 62	0 / 1	0

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Rodrigo Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8