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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandr Romanov won · SUB

Elo1506

Alexandr RomanovvsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · Saturday, November 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandr Romanov won

SUB

Style matchupAlexandr Romanov: WrestlervsMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(91.1%)

Actual result: Alexandr Romanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandr Romanov at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandr Romanov threatens submissions; Marcos Rogerio de Lima has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexandr Romanov

Red Corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blue Corner

-455

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1506

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandr Romanov

oldest →

vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24

latest

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandr RomanovMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima

3.78

Strikes / min

3.70

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

54%

Strike defense

51%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

1.40

28%

Takedown defense

59%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.65evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandr RomanovMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -567.0|Blue +567.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandr RomanovTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

100% acc · 50%

Head

41% acc · 39%

50% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 28%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

86% acc · 33%

By position

Distance

55% acc · 67%

75% acc · 50%

Clinch

83% acc · 28%

100% acc · 50%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandr Romanov rounds

even

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control3:51

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 7

Sig Strikes

18 / 29

85%

Sig Str %

62%

10 / 12

Total Strikes

27 / 39

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	18 / 29	27 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Alexandr Romanov	6 / 7	10 / 12	2 / 5	1

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17