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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandr Romanov won · S-DEC

Elo1506

Elo1493

Alexandr RomanovvsJuan EspinoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Saturday, April 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandr Romanov won

S-DEC

Style matchupAlexandr Romanov: WrestlervsJuan Espino: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Alexandr Romanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandr Romanov at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Juan Espino threatens submissions; Alexandr Romanov has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Alexandr Romanov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Juan Espino has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Juan Espino has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandr Romanov

Red Corner

Juan Espino

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1506

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandr Romanov

oldest →

vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24

latest

Juan EspinoW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Justin Frazier · Nov 18

SUBvs Jeff Hughes · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandr RomanovMetricJuan Espino

3.78

Strikes / min

2.38

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

1.95

54%

Strike defense

40%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

8.93

28%

Takedown defense

50%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

2.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.65Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandr RomanovJuan Espino

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Juan Espino(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandr RomanovTargetJuan Espino

By target zone

52% acc · 72%

Head

47% acc · 67%

100% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

67% acc · 17%

By position

40% acc · 25%

Distance

41% acc · 58%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

67% acc · 56%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandr Romanov rounds

even

Juan Espino rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:18

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 2Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control3:20

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Juan Espino edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:03

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:42Control

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 53

Sig Strikes

12 / 22

58%

Sig Str %

59.3%

53 / 77

Total Strikes

44 / 56

2 / 4

TDs

4 / 5

50%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:41

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Juan Espino	4 / 6	20 / 22	2 / 2
1	Alexandr Romanov	5 / 9	14 / 18	1 / 1
2	Juan Espino	6 / 13	21 / 30	0 / 1
2	Alexandr Romanov	27 / 44	38 / 58	1 / 2
3	Juan Espino	2 / 3	3 / 4	2 / 2
3	Alexandr Romanov	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Juan Espino

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights3