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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandr Romanov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1506

Elo1436

Alexandr RomanovvsJared VanderaaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, October 9, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandr Romanov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:43

Style matchupAlexandr Romanov: WrestlervsJared Vanderaa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(79.6%)

Actual result: Alexandr Romanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandr Romanov at -575 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).
Jared Vanderaa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandr Romanov

Red Corner

Jared Vanderaa

Blue Corner

-575

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1506

Elo

1436

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandr Romanov

oldest →

vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24

latest

Jared VanderaaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Tafa · May 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Feb 22

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 22

KOvs Chase Sherman · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandr RomanovMetricJared Vanderaa

3.78

Strikes / min

4.96

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

54%

Strike defense

45%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

0.18

28%

Takedown defense

20%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.65Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap-0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandr RomanovJared Vanderaa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.2|Blue -70.2

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandr RomanovTargetJared Vanderaa

By target zone

73% acc · 86%

Head

33% acc · 31%

60% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 15%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

88% acc · 54%

By position

50% acc · 20%

Distance

53% acc · 77%

Clinch

75% acc · 23%

80% acc · 80%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandr Romanov rounds

even

Jared Vanderaa rounds

Round 1Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns4

Control2:05

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control4:26

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 78

Sig Strikes

13 / 23

63%

Sig Str %

30.5%

78 / 103

Total Strikes

19 / 31

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

65%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Vanderaa	13 / 21	16 / 26	0 / 0
1	Alexandr Romanov	9 / 20	10 / 21	4 / 5
2	Jared Vanderaa	0 / 2	3 / 5	0 / 0
2	Alexandr Romanov	47 / 58	68 / 82	1 / 2

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Jared Vanderaa

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7