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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandr Romanov won · SUB R1

Elo1506

Elo1459

Alexandr RomanovvsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · Saturday, April 30, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexandr Romanov won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:11

Style matchupAlexandr Romanov: WrestlervsChase Sherman: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Alexandr Romanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandr Romanov at -2000 American odds

+$5 profit

$105 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chase Sherman has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexandr Romanov

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

-2000

(95%)

Vegas Odds

+1000

(9%)

1506

Elo

1459

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandr Romanov

oldest →

vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24

latest

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Parker Porter · Aug 21

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandr RomanovMetricChase Sherman

3.78

Strikes / min

6.04

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

54%

Strike defense

52%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

0.09

28%

Takedown defense

74%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.65Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandr RomanovChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.6|Blue -47.6

Recent Form

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandr RomanovTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

57% acc · 100%

Head

Body

Leg

By position

Distance

Clinch

57% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandr Romanov rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Alexandr Romanov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control1:58

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 14

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

57%

Sig Str %

—

11 / 17

Total Strikes

0 / 0

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chase Sherman	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
1	Alexandr Romanov	8 / 14	11 / 17	3 / 3	1

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15