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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Roosevelt Roberts won · U-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1489

Alexander YakovlevvsRoosevelt RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · Saturday, November 9, 2019Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Roosevelt Roberts won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Roosevelt Roberts wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Roosevelt Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roosevelt Roberts at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roosevelt Roberts enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Roosevelt Roberts threatens submissions; Alexander Yakovlev has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Alexander Yakovlev has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexander Yakovlev (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Yakovlev

Red Corner

Roosevelt Roberts

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1391

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Yakovlev

oldest →

KOvs George Sullivan · Jan 16

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 16

SUBvs Zak Cummings · Nov 16

SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Oct 20

latest

Roosevelt RobertsL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jun 20

vs Kevin Croom · Sep 20

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Aug 21

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · Nov 23

vs Ludovit Klein · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander YakovlevMetricRoosevelt Roberts

1.74

Strikes / min

2.84

2.41

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

58%

Strike defense

52%

1.66

TDs / 15 min

1.18

72%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.67evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander YakovlevRoosevelt Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)Roosevelt Roberts(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -98.6|Blue +98.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander YakovlevTargetRoosevelt Roberts

By target zone

24% acc · 40%

Head

24% acc · 79%

67% acc · 30%

Body

50% acc · 7%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

32% acc · 60%

Distance

28% acc · 96%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

70% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Yakovlev rounds

even

Roosevelt Roberts rounds

Round 1Roosevelt Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:03

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Alexander Yakovlev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control3:42

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:34

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:32Control

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 49

Sig Strikes

28 / 98

43.7%

Sig Str %

27%

38 / 71

Total Strikes

56 / 128

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:19

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roosevelt Roberts	16 / 49	19 / 52	0 / 0
1	Alexander Yakovlev	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 1
2	Roosevelt Roberts	2 / 8	8 / 14	0 / 0
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 / 12	17 / 23	2 / 2
3	Roosevelt Roberts	10 / 41	29 / 62	0 / 0
3	Alexander Yakovlev	5 / 21	13 / 32	1 / 5

Alexander Yakovlev

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Roosevelt Roberts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10