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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Tom Aspinall won · SUB R1

Elo1535

Elo1516

Alexander VolkovvsTom AspinallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Tom Aspinall won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:45

Style matchupAlexander Volkov: Well-roundedvsTom Aspinall: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(85.6%)

Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Aspinall at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Aspinall has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkov

Red Corner

Tom Aspinall

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1535

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'7"

Height

6'5"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Tom Aspinall

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkovMetricTom Aspinall

4.84

Strikes / min

7.63

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

54%

Strike defense

56%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

2.62

68%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.94Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap+4.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkovTom Aspinall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkov(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.4|Blue -19.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkovTargetTom Aspinall

By target zone

38% acc · 46%

Head

53% acc · 55%

100% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 28%

By position

59% acc · 100%

Distance

62% acc · 55%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

0% acc

Ground

75% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkov rounds

even

Tom Aspinall rounds

Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 23

Sig Strikes

29 / 43

56%

Sig Str %

67%

13 / 23

Total Strikes

35 / 50

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Aspinall	29 / 43	35 / 50	2 / 2	1
1	Alexander Volkov	13 / 23	13 / 23	0 / 0	0

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10