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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1535

Elo1491

Alexander VolkovvsRoy NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkov wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkov at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Volkov has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkov

Red Corner

Roy Nelson

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1535

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'7"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkovMetricRoy Nelson

4.84

Strikes / min

2.18

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

54%

Strike defense

46%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.14

68%

Takedown defense

65%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.94Δ 4.55 — meaningful gap-2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkovRoy Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkov(10 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.7|Blue -44.7

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkovTargetRoy Nelson

By target zone

58% acc · 63%

Head

35% acc · 56%

85% acc · 24%

Body

100% acc · 28%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 16%

By position

105

67% acc · 86%

Distance

43% acc · 78%

68% acc · 14%

Clinch

86% acc · 19%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkov rounds

even

Roy Nelson rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:23

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:12Control

Round 2Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 3Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

122 / 182

Sig Strikes

32 / 67

67.7%

Sig Str %

51%

125 / 185

Total Strikes

40 / 75

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 8

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

4:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roy Nelson	9 / 14	12 / 17	1 / 3
1	Alexander Volkov	29 / 39	32 / 42	0 / 0
2	Roy Nelson	11 / 21	16 / 26	0 / 3
2	Alexander Volkov	45 / 71	45 / 71	0 / 0
3	Roy Nelson	12 / 32	12 / 32	0 / 2
3	Alexander Volkov	48 / 72	48 / 72	0 / 0

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18