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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1535

Elo1506

Alexander VolkovvsAlexandr RomanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:16

Style matchupAlexander Volkov: Well-roundedvsAlexandr Romanov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandr Romanov at -146 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Volkov has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).
Alexander Volkov has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkov

Red Corner

Alexandr Romanov

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-146

(59%)

1535

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'7"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Alexandr Romanov

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Apr 22

vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkovMetricAlexandr Romanov

4.84

Strikes / min

3.78

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

54%

Strike defense

54%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

4.49

68%

Takedown defense

28%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.94evenly matched on net striking+1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkovAlexandr Romanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkov(10 fights)Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.1|Blue -29.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkovTargetAlexandr Romanov

By target zone

73% acc · 67%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

By position

57% acc · 33%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkov rounds

even

Alexandr Romanov rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:03

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 15

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

80%

Sig Str %

27 / 35

Total Strikes

0 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexandr Romanov	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 5	0
1	Alexander Volkov	12 / 15	27 / 35	0 / 0	0

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10