← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexander Volkanovski won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1521

Elo1504

Alexander VolkanovskivsYair RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 8, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:19

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsYair Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Yair Rodriguez

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1521

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

vs Islam Makhachev · Feb 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Nov 21

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricYair Rodriguez

5.99

Strikes / min

4.65

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

58%

Strike defense

52%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.71

68%

Takedown defense

59%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiYair Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.8|Blue -16.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetYair Rodriguez

By target zone

70% acc · 73%

Head

27% acc · 33%

80% acc · 6%

Body

79% acc · 28%

61% acc · 21%

Leg

94% acc · 40%

By position

56% acc · 38%

Distance

49% acc · 95%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 56%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Yair Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns3

Control3:22

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns3

Control3:33

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control0:18

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 97

Sig Strikes

40 / 80

69.7%

Sig Str %

54%

149 / 198

Total Strikes

57 / 103

7 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

58.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yair Rodriguez	5 / 9	10 / 15	0 / 0
1	Alexander Volkanovski	11 / 15	49 / 58	3 / 4
2	Yair Rodriguez	12 / 19	24 / 36	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	18 / 25	55 / 75	3 / 6
3	Yair Rodriguez	23 / 52	23 / 52	0 / 0
3	Alexander Volkanovski	37 / 57	45 / 65	1 / 2

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15