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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1473

Alexander VolkanovskivsShane YoungUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsShane Young: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(79.7%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at -640 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Young enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Shane Young is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Shane Young

Blue Corner

-640

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+470

(18%)

1521

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Shane YoungL4 streak

oldest →

vs Austin Arnett · Feb 19

KOvs Ludovit Klein · Sep 20

vs Omar Morales · Mar 21

vs Blake Bilder · Feb 23

SUBvs Gabriel Miranda · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricShane Young

5.99

Strikes / min

5.19

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

5.46

58%

Strike defense

52%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.63

68%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiShane Young

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Shane Young(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetShane Young

By target zone

46% acc · 53%

Head

16% acc · 61%

85% acc · 16%

Body

50% acc · 28%

91% acc · 31%

Leg

50% acc · 11%

By position

56% acc · 59%

Distance

20% acc · 83%

56% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

78% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Shane Young rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:49

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns3

Control2:31

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control4:01

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 114

Sig Strikes

18 / 81

59.7%

Sig Str %

27.3%

79 / 128

Total Strikes

20 / 83

5 / 14

TDs

1 / 1

35%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

8:21

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shane Young	7 / 33	8 / 34	0 / 0
1	Alexander Volkanovski	20 / 39	21 / 40	1 / 5
2	Shane Young	8 / 41	8 / 41	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	29 / 47	32 / 50	3 / 5
3	Shane Young	3 / 7	4 / 8	1 / 1
3	Alexander Volkanovski	19 / 28	26 / 38	1 / 4

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Shane Young

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7