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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1369

Alexander VolkanovskivsMizuto HirotaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · Saturday, June 10, 2017Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsMizuto Hirota: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Mizuto Hirota wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mizuto Hirota at +440 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Volkanovski has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Mizuto Hirota

Blue Corner

-580

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+440

(19%)

1521

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Mizuto HirotaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 13

vs Rodrigo Damm · Jun 13

vs Cole Miller · Dec 16

vs Ross Pearson · Feb 18

vs Christos Giagos · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricMizuto Hirota

5.99

Strikes / min

3.36

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

58%

Strike defense

54%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

1.36

68%

Takedown defense

58%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiMizuto Hirota

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Mizuto Hirota(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +151.6|Blue -151.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetMizuto Hirota

By target zone

57% acc · 63%

Head

28% acc · 85%

69% acc · 10%

Body

40% acc · 4%

79% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

49% acc · 53%

Distance

30% acc · 91%

90% acc · 21%

Clinch

40% acc · 4%

88% acc · 26%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Mizuto Hirota rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns3

Control2:23

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control1:39

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:16

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 139

Sig Strikes

46 / 149

62.7%

Sig Str %

31.3%

93 / 145

Total Strikes

51 / 155

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 5

41.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:18

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mizuto Hirota	16 / 41	19 / 44	0 / 0
1	Alexander Volkanovski	33 / 56	35 / 58	3 / 4
2	Mizuto Hirota	14 / 50	15 / 52	0 / 1
2	Alexander Volkanovski	28 / 45	32 / 49	1 / 2
3	Mizuto Hirota	16 / 58	17 / 59	0 / 4
3	Alexander Volkanovski	26 / 38	26 / 38	0 / 1

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Mizuto Hirota

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6