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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexander Volkanovski won · S-DEC R5

Elo1521

Elo1517

Alexander VolkanovskivsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Max Holloway

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1521

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricMax Holloway

5.99

Strikes / min

6.91

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

58%

Strike defense

58%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.23

68%

Takedown defense

81%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68evenly matched on net striking+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

40% acc · 47%

Head

26% acc · 43%

60% acc · 4%

Body

59% acc · 26%

66% acc · 49%

Leg

56% acc · 30%

By position

136

51% acc · 99%

Distance

37% acc · 93%

17% acc · 1%

Clinch

70% acc · 7%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Max Holloway rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:34

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:14

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns2

Control0:38

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

137 / 272

Sig Strikes

102 / 268

49.4%

Sig Str %

37.4%

139 / 275

Total Strikes

111 / 277

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

27.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Holloway	19 / 47	19 / 47	0 / 0
1	Alexander Volkanovski	19 / 39	19 / 39	0 / 0
2	Max Holloway	21 / 52	21 / 52	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	22 / 47	22 / 47	0 / 0
3	Max Holloway	15 / 47	18 / 50	0 / 0
3	Alexander Volkanovski	25 / 52	27 / 54	0 / 1
4	Alexander Volkanovski	34 / 63	34 / 64	1 / 2
4	Max Holloway	24 / 61	27 / 64	0 / 0
5	Max Holloway	23 / 61	26 / 64	0 / 0
5	Alexander Volkanovski	37 / 71	37 / 71	2 / 6

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33