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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R5

Elo1521

Elo1517

Alexander VolkanovskivsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Saturday, July 2, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Max Holloway

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1521

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricMax Holloway

5.99

Strikes / min

6.91

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

58%

Strike defense

58%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.23

68%

Takedown defense

81%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68evenly matched on net striking+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

152

48% acc · 76%

Head

30% acc · 50%

79% acc · 10%

Body

71% acc · 33%

88% acc · 14%

Leg

72% acc · 17%

By position

175

51% acc · 88%

Distance

109

39% acc · 86%

75% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Max Holloway rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:22

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:32

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 4Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:26

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 5Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:37

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

199 / 372

Sig Strikes

127 / 301

53%

Sig Str %

41.6%

204 / 377

Total Strikes

161 / 335

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Holloway	24 / 56	26 / 58	0 / 0
1	Alexander Volkanovski	28 / 70	28 / 70	0 / 0
2	Max Holloway	27 / 65	37 / 75	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	37 / 78	38 / 79	0 / 0
3	Max Holloway	26 / 63	30 / 67	0 / 0
3	Alexander Volkanovski	40 / 74	40 / 74	0 / 0
4	Alexander Volkanovski	44 / 70	48 / 74	0 / 0
4	Max Holloway	31 / 63	42 / 74	0 / 1
5	Max Holloway	19 / 54	26 / 61	0 / 2
5	Alexander Volkanovski	50 / 80	50 / 80	0 / 0

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33