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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkanovski won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1521

Elo1491

Alexander VolkanovskivsJeremy KennedyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:57

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsJeremy Kennedy: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Kennedy wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Kennedy at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Kennedy enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Jeremy Kennedy

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1521

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Jeremy KennedyW3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Alessandro Ricci · Aug 16

vs Rony Jason · Mar 17

vs Kyle Bochniak · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricJeremy Kennedy

5.99

Strikes / min

2.22

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.58

58%

Strike defense

47%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

5.73

68%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68Δ 3.04 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiJeremy Kennedy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Jeremy Kennedy(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.7|Blue -29.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetJeremy Kennedy

By target zone

55% acc · 78%

Head

29% acc · 88%

100% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 13%

86% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 5%

Distance

6% acc · 13%

63% acc · 7%

Clinch

62% acc · 88%

Ground

100% acc · 88%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Jeremy Kennedy rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control4:10

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns1

Control3:45

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 120

Sig Strikes

8 / 25

60.5%

Sig Str %

34.5%

105 / 158

Total Strikes

11 / 29

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:55

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Kennedy	3 / 7	5 / 9	0 / 1
1	Alexander Volkanovski	30 / 48	42 / 63	1 / 2
2	Jeremy Kennedy	5 / 18	6 / 20	0 / 2
2	Alexander Volkanovski	43 / 72	63 / 95	1 / 1

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Jeremy Kennedy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4