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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1521

Elo1520

Alexander VolkanovskivsIlia TopuriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:32

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsIlia Topuria: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at -142 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilia Topuria is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Ilia Topuria has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Ilia Topuria

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1521

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

vs Islam Makhachev · Feb 23

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Ilia Topuria

oldest →

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricIlia Topuria

5.99

Strikes / min

4.81

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

58%

Strike defense

64%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

1.96

68%

Takedown defense

93%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiIlia Topuria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Ilia Topuria(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetIlia Topuria

By target zone

31% acc · 45%

Head

32% acc · 49%

50% acc · 23%

Body

75% acc · 34%

88% acc · 32%

Leg

75% acc · 17%

By position

43% acc · 94%

Distance

40% acc · 80%

60% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Ilia Topuria rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 107

Sig Strikes

35 / 77

44%

Sig Str %

45%

47 / 107

Total Strikes

36 / 78

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ilia Topuria	15 / 38	16 / 39	0 / 0
1	Alexander Volkanovski	26 / 52	26 / 52	0 / 0
2	Ilia Topuria	20 / 39	20 / 39	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	21 / 55	21 / 55	0 / 0

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9