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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R5

Elo1521

Elo1549

Alexander VolkanovskivsDiego LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · Saturday, January 31, 2026Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsDiego Lopes: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Lopes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alexander Volkanovski has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Diego Lopes

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+136

(42%)

1521

Elo

1549

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Volkanovski

oldest →

vs Islam Makhachev · Feb 23

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

latest

Diego LopesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 24

vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25

KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricDiego Lopes

5.99

Strikes / min

3.83

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.56

58%

Strike defense

45%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.88

68%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiDiego Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Diego Lopes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.8|Blue +28.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetDiego Lopes

By target zone

61% acc · 73%

Head

34% acc · 47%

50% acc · 3%

Body

52% acc · 24%

64% acc · 23%

Leg

74% acc · 29%

By position

59% acc · 90%

Distance

43% acc · 94%

75% acc · 3%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Diego Lopes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:27

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control2:22

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

98 / 160

Sig Strikes

70 / 158

62%

Sig Str %

41.6%

112 / 178

Total Strikes

74 / 162

2 / 7

TDs

2 / 5

22%

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:49

Ctrl Time

1:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Lopes	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Alexander Volkanovski	12 / 27	17 / 32	0 / 2	0
2	Diego Lopes	16 / 34	19 / 37	1 / 1	0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	19 / 30	20 / 33	0 / 0	1
3	Diego Lopes	17 / 38	17 / 38	0 / 0	0
3	Alexander Volkanovski	21 / 35	21 / 35	0 / 2	0
4	Diego Lopes	22 / 48	22 / 48	0 / 0	0
4	Alexander Volkanovski	25 / 44	25 / 44	0 / 0	0
5	Alexander Volkanovski	21 / 24	29 / 34	2 / 3	0
5	Diego Lopes	3 / 10	4 / 11	1 / 4	0

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9