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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R5

Elo1521

Elo1549

Alexander VolkanovskivsDiego LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsDiego Lopes: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at -156 American odds

+$64 profit

$164 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Lopes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alexander Volkanovski has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Diego Lopes

Blue Corner

-156

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+132

(43%)

1521

Elo

1549

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Volkanovski

oldest →

vs Islam Makhachev · Feb 23

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Diego Lopes

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 24

vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricDiego Lopes

5.99

Strikes / min

3.83

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.56

58%

Strike defense

45%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.88

68%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiDiego Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Diego Lopes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.8|Blue +28.8

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetDiego Lopes

By target zone

136

60% acc · 86%

Head

29% acc · 78%

57% acc · 5%

Body

54% acc · 11%

70% acc · 9%

Leg

70% acc · 11%

By position

142

60% acc · 90%

Distance

32% acc · 94%

64% acc · 4%

Clinch

38% acc · 5%

82% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Diego Lopes rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:58

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:20

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

158 / 259

Sig Strikes

63 / 194

60%

Sig Str %

33.6%

165 / 266

Total Strikes

71 / 203

1 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

6.6%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkanovski	27 / 44	31 / 48	1 / 3
1	Diego Lopes	8 / 22	11 / 26	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	24 / 52	27 / 55	0 / 2
2	Diego Lopes	16 / 33	17 / 34	0 / 0
3	Diego Lopes	9 / 37	9 / 37	0 / 0
3	Alexander Volkanovski	25 / 45	25 / 45	0 / 1
4	Diego Lopes	16 / 43	16 / 43	0 / 0
4	Alexander Volkanovski	39 / 57	39 / 57	0 / 3
5	Alexander Volkanovski	43 / 61	43 / 61	0 / 2
5	Diego Lopes	14 / 59	18 / 63	0 / 0

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9