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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R5

Elo1521

Elo1489

Alexander VolkanovskivsBrian OrtegaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski

Red Corner

Brian Ortega

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1521

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkanovskiMetricBrian Ortega

5.99

Strikes / min

3.84

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

58%

Strike defense

49%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.93

68%

Takedown defense

54%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.68Δ 5.22 — meaningful gap-2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkanovskiBrian Ortega

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.9|Blue -31.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkanovskiTargetBrian Ortega

By target zone

146

54% acc · 68%

Head

31% acc · 67%

77% acc · 9%

Body

77% acc · 23%

84% acc · 22%

Leg

60% acc · 10%

By position

158

62% acc · 74%

Distance

36% acc · 93%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

57% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

even

Brian Ortega rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:03

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes61

Takedowns0

Control1:13

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 4Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control2:33

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 5Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:02

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

214 / 353

Sig Strikes

88 / 234

60%

Sig Str %

37.8%

229 / 377

Total Strikes

101 / 250

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:51

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Ortega	16 / 51	16 / 51	0 / 0	0
1	Alexander Volkanovski	30 / 52	30 / 52	0 / 0	0
2	Brian Ortega	23 / 58	23 / 58	0 / 0	0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	38 / 61	38 / 61	0 / 0	0
3	Brian Ortega	17 / 40	22 / 46	1 / 1	2
3	Alexander Volkanovski	61 / 99	65 / 109	0 / 0	0
4	Alexander Volkanovski	35 / 58	46 / 72	0 / 0	0
4	Brian Ortega	6 / 15	14 / 25	1 / 2	1
5	Brian Ortega	26 / 70	26 / 70	0 / 2	0
5	Alexander Volkanovski	50 / 83	50 / 83	0 / 0	0

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13