Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Munoz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1466

Alexander MunozvsCarl DeatonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Saturday, July 15, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Munoz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alexander Munoz wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Munoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Munoz at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Munoz has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexander Munoz (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Munoz

Red Corner

Carl Deaton

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+176

(36%)

1500

Elo

1466

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Munoz

oldest →

vs Luis Pena · Apr 21

latest

Carl Deaton

oldest →

SUBvs Joe Solecki · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander MunozMetricCarl Deaton

3.70

Strikes / min

1.53

4.73

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

55%

Strike defense

61%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.03evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander MunozCarl Deaton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Munoz(2 fights)Carl Deaton(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.1|Blue -34.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +679.0|Blue -679.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander MunozTargetCarl Deaton

By target zone

37% acc · 84%

Head

30% acc · 78%

55% acc · 14%

Body

73% acc · 22%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 61%

Distance

34% acc · 97%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

71% acc · 34%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Munoz rounds

even

Carl Deaton rounds

Round 1Carl Deaton edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns3

Control3:54

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 111

Sig Strikes

37 / 108

41%

Sig Str %

32.3%

53 / 120

Total Strikes

39 / 112

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 2

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:54

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carl Deaton	13 / 40	13 / 40	0 / 1
1	Alexander Munoz	8 / 34	8 / 34	0 / 2
2	Carl Deaton	19 / 50	19 / 50	0 / 1
2	Alexander Munoz	18 / 49	18 / 49	0 / 1
3	Carl Deaton	5 / 18	7 / 22	0 / 0
3	Alexander Munoz	18 / 28	27 / 37	3 / 4

Alexander Munoz

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Carl Deaton

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2