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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Moises won · U-DEC

Elo1523

Elo1486

Alexander HernandezvsThiago MoisesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Saturday, February 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Moises won

U-DEC

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Thiago Moises

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1523

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Thiago MoisesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricThiago Moises

4.23

Strikes / min

2.52

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

59%

Strike defense

52%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.37

68%

Takedown defense

52%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezThiago Moises

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.5|Blue -37.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetThiago Moises

By target zone

10% acc · 30%

Head

23% acc · 68%

55% acc · 36%

Body

45% acc · 9%

85% acc · 34%

Leg

71% acc · 23%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Thiago Moises rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thiago Moises edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 205

Sig Strikes

53 / 183

24%

Sig Str %

29.3%

50 / 205

Total Strikes

53 / 183

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Moises	17 / 47	17 / 47	0 / 0
1	Alexander Hernandez	19 / 73	19 / 73	0 / 0
2	Thiago Moises	16 / 71	16 / 71	0 / 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	17 / 63	17 / 63	0 / 0
3	Thiago Moises	20 / 65	20 / 65	0 / 1
3	Alexander Hernandez	14 / 69	14 / 69	0 / 0

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15