Lightweight

3 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · SUB R2

Elo1523

Alexander HernandezvsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:23

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1523

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricRenato Moicano

4.23

Strikes / min

4.10

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

59%

Strike defense

59%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.68

68%

Takedown defense

64%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

35% acc · 51%

Head

49% acc · 76%

62% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 18%

91% acc · 27%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

46% acc · 95%

Distance

52% acc · 79%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:05

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 79

Sig Strikes

33 / 60

54%

Sig Str %

52.5%

39 / 81

Total Strikes

38 / 65

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

1:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Renato Moicano	10 / 26	15 / 31	2 / 5	0
1	Alexander Hernandez	27 / 64	28 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Renato Moicano	23 / 34	23 / 34	0 / 1	1
2	Alexander Hernandez	10 / 15	11 / 16	0 / 1	0

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20