Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1375

Alexander HernandezvsOlivier Aubin-MercierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, July 28, 2018Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsOlivier Aubin-Mercier: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1523

Elo

1375

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Olivier Aubin-MercierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricOlivier Aubin-Mercier

4.23

Strikes / min

2.48

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

59%

Strike defense

55%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

2.36

68%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezOlivier Aubin-Mercier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +148.5|Blue -148.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetOlivier Aubin-Mercier

By target zone

44% acc · 62%

Head

44% acc · 42%

63% acc · 38%

Body

82% acc · 47%

0% acc

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

27% acc · 26%

Distance

43% acc · 47%

68% acc · 44%

Clinch

90% acc · 47%

63% acc · 31%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:15

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:08

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 3Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:48

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 81

Sig Strikes

19 / 32

50.3%

Sig Str %

54%

86 / 137

Total Strikes

37 / 50

4 / 10

TDs

2 / 6

50%

TD %

37.5%

Sub Att

Rev

7:11

Ctrl Time

3:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	15 / 24	28 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Alexander Hernandez	15 / 37	26 / 48	1 / 4	0
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	2 / 4	7 / 9	1 / 2	1
2	Alexander Hernandez	7 / 12	22 / 29	1 / 4	0
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	2 / 4	2 / 4	1 / 4	0
3	Alexander Hernandez	17 / 32	38 / 60	2 / 2	0

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12