Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1523

Elo1496

Alexander HernandezvsMike BreedenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:20

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsMike Breeden: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -675 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mike Breeden has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alexander Hernandez has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Mike Breeden

Blue Corner

-675

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+475

(17%)

1523

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Mike Breeden

oldest →

vs Natan Levy · Apr 22

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Aug 23

KOvs Anshul Jubli · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricMike Breeden

4.23

Strikes / min

5.75

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

7.28

59%

Strike defense

42%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.98

68%

Takedown defense

67%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezMike Breeden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Mike Breeden(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.8|Blue -26.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetMike Breeden

By target zone

52% acc · 75%

Head

31% acc · 67%

100% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

54% acc · 70%

Distance

36% acc · 83%

67% acc · 30%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Mike Breeden rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 35

Sig Strikes

6 / 15

57%

Sig Str %

40%

20 / 35

Total Strikes

6 / 15

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Breeden	6 / 15	6 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Alexander Hernandez	20 / 35	20 / 35	0 / 2	0

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Mike Breeden

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4