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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1490

Alexander HernandezvsKurt HolobaughUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Saturday, March 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alexander Hernandez has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Kurt Holobaugh

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1523

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Kurt Holobaugh

oldest →

vs Thiago Moises · May 19

SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23

vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24

vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricKurt Holobaugh

4.23

Strikes / min

4.58

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

59%

Strike defense

49%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.65

68%

Takedown defense

38%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.3|Blue -33.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetKurt Holobaugh

By target zone

31% acc · 61%

Head

32% acc · 55%

67% acc · 17%

Body

60% acc · 30%

76% acc · 22%

Leg

79% acc · 15%

By position

35% acc · 76%

Distance

39% acc · 89%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

73% acc · 11%

71% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Kurt Holobaugh rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:09

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control2:01

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:29

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 149

Sig Strikes

71 / 171

38.7%

Sig Str %

40%

87 / 186

Total Strikes

106 / 215

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

88.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:39

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kurt Holobaugh	26 / 75	26 / 75	0 / 0	1
1	Alexander Hernandez	22 / 68	24 / 70	1 / 1	0
2	Kurt Holobaugh	38 / 78	48 / 91	0 / 0	0
2	Alexander Hernandez	30 / 62	37 / 75	1 / 1	0
3	Kurt Holobaugh	7 / 18	32 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Alexander Hernandez	7 / 19	26 / 41	2 / 3	0

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Kurt Holobaugh

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9