Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1496

Alexander HernandezvsFrancisco TrinaldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Francisco Trinaldo

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1523

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricFrancisco Trinaldo

4.23

Strikes / min

3.13

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

59%

Strike defense

60%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.98

68%

Takedown defense

60%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezFrancisco Trinaldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.8|Blue -26.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetFrancisco Trinaldo

By target zone

17% acc · 36%

Head

39% acc · 52%

Body

61% acc · 44%

60% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:02

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:18

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 91

Sig Strikes

25 / 52

26.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

26 / 92

Total Strikes

28 / 55

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francisco Trinaldo	8 / 14	8 / 14	0 / 0
1	Alexander Hernandez	8 / 30	8 / 30	0 / 0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	5 / 17	5 / 17	0 / 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	6 / 23	6 / 23	0 / 1
3	Francisco Trinaldo	12 / 21	15 / 24	0 / 0
3	Alexander Hernandez	11 / 38	12 / 39	0 / 0

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26