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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1523

Elo1514

Alexander HernandezvsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · Wednesday, May 13, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:25

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1523

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricDrew Dober

4.23

Strikes / min

4.48

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

59%

Strike defense

53%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.61

68%

Takedown defense

58%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.5|Blue -9.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

25% acc · 65%

Head

38% acc · 79%

63% acc · 35%

Body

60% acc · 10%

0% acc

Leg

78% acc · 11%

By position

28% acc · 82%

Distance

40% acc · 89%

71% acc · 15%

Clinch

70% acc · 11%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:31

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control0:36

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 108

Sig Strikes

61 / 145

31%

Sig Str %

41.5%

41 / 115

Total Strikes

65 / 149

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

58%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Drew Dober	24 / 58	26 / 60	0 / 0
1	Alexander Hernandez	16 / 54	17 / 55	1 / 2
2	Drew Dober	37 / 87	39 / 89	0 / 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	18 / 54	24 / 60	2 / 3

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26