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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1523

Elo1489

Alexander HernandezvsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:46

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Diego Ferreira has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Diego Ferreira

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-118

(54%)

1523

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Diego Ferreira

oldest →

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · May 21

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricDiego Ferreira

4.23

Strikes / min

4.70

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

59%

Strike defense

55%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.82

68%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.5|Blue -34.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -210.0|Blue +210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

35% acc · 73%

Head

14% acc · 35%

67% acc · 13%

Body

31% acc · 48%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

57% acc · 17%

By position

33% acc · 67%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

71% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Diego Ferreira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 75

Sig Strikes

23 / 98

39.5%

Sig Str %

23%

30 / 75

Total Strikes

23 / 98

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Diego Ferreira	11 / 53	11 / 53	0 / 0
1	Alexander Hernandez	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 0
2	Diego Ferreira	12 / 45	12 / 45	0 / 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 0

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17