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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Damon Jackson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1495

Alexander HernandezvsDamon JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Saturday, April 6, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Damon Jackson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsDamon Jackson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Damon Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damon Jackson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alexander Hernandez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alexander Hernandez has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Damon Jackson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Damon Jackson

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+154

(39%)

1523

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Damon JacksonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Pat Sabatini · Sep 22

KOvs Dan Ige · Jan 23

vs Billy Quarantillo · Aug 23

vs Chepe Mariscal · Aug 24

SUBvs Jim Miller · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricDamon Jackson

4.23

Strikes / min

2.96

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

59%

Strike defense

49%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

2.30

68%

Takedown defense

37%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezDamon Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Damon Jackson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.8|Blue -27.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetDamon Jackson

By target zone

29% acc · 63%

Head

33% acc · 48%

55% acc · 19%

Body

83% acc · 24%

86% acc · 19%

Leg

92% acc · 29%

By position

36% acc · 91%

Distance

44% acc · 71%

0% acc

Clinch

69% acc · 26%

75% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Damon Jackson rounds

Round 1Damon Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 2Damon Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:19

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:21Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 87

Sig Strikes

42 / 85

37.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

56 / 119

Total Strikes

85 / 135

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

58.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:22

Ctrl Time

6:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Damon Jackson	10 / 21	36 / 49	1 / 4
1	Alexander Hernandez	8 / 27	10 / 31	0 / 0
2	Damon Jackson	23 / 52	33 / 65	1 / 1
2	Alexander Hernandez	19 / 49	19 / 49	0 / 0
3	Damon Jackson	9 / 12	16 / 21	1 / 2
3	Alexander Hernandez	5 / 11	27 / 39	0 / 0

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Damon Jackson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12