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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bill Algeo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1498

Alexander HernandezvsBill AlgeoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Saturday, October 7, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bill Algeo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsBill Algeo: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Bill Algeo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Bill Algeo (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Bill Algeo

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1523

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Bill AlgeoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Herbert Burns · Jul 22

vs Andre Fili · Sep 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Apr 23

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricBill Algeo

4.23

Strikes / min

5.88

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.38

59%

Strike defense

47%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.03

68%

Takedown defense

55%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezBill Algeo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Bill Algeo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.6|Blue -25.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetBill Algeo

By target zone

31% acc · 33%

Head

29% acc · 42%

68% acc · 60%

Body

66% acc · 30%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

82% acc · 28%

By position

49% acc · 100%

Distance

108

45% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Bill Algeo rounds

Round 1Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:27

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:08

39Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 156

Sig Strikes

110 / 244

47%

Sig Str %

44.7%

76 / 157

Total Strikes

119 / 257

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bill Algeo	27 / 61	27 / 61	0 / 0
1	Alexander Hernandez	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 0
2	Bill Algeo	44 / 89	52 / 100	0 / 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	28 / 59	28 / 59	0 / 0
3	Bill Algeo	39 / 94	40 / 96	1 / 1
3	Alexander Hernandez	31 / 58	32 / 59	0 / 1

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Bill Algeo

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10