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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1430

Elo1490

Alexander GustafssonvsThiago SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · Saturday, April 14, 2012Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsThiago Silva: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Gustafsson at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Thiago Silva has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alexander Gustafsson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Gustafsson

Red Corner

Thiago Silva

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1430

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Thiago SilvaW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Feijao · Jun 13

vs Matt Hamill · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander GustafssonMetricThiago Silva

4.03

Strikes / min

3.92

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

51%

Strike defense

67%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

1.03

83%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander GustafssonThiago Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Thiago Silva(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.8|Blue +59.8

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander GustafssonTargetThiago Silva

By target zone

20% acc · 66%

Head

26% acc · 55%

54% acc · 9%

Body

40% acc · 11%

90% acc · 25%

Leg

72% acc · 34%

By position

26% acc · 95%

Distance

37% acc · 95%

38% acc · 4%

Clinch

22% acc · 5%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

even

Thiago Silva rounds

Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:27

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 283

Sig Strikes

38 / 108

26.7%

Sig Str %

34.7%

78 / 287

Total Strikes

38 / 108

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Silva	10 / 32	10 / 32	0 / 0
1	Alexander Gustafsson	20 / 100	20 / 101	0 / 0
2	Thiago Silva	8 / 38	8 / 38	0 / 0
2	Alexander Gustafsson	27 / 88	29 / 91	1 / 1
3	Thiago Silva	20 / 38	20 / 38	0 / 0
3	Alexander Gustafsson	29 / 95	29 / 95	0 / 0

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Thiago Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3