Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Phil Davis has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22 Phil Davis
oldest →W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander GustafssonMetricPhil Davis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.50Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alexander GustafssonPhil Davis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Phil Davis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -59.9|Blue +59.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alexander GustafssonTargetPhil Davis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Alexander Gustafsson rounds
Round 1Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:25
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
