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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1430

Elo1373

Alexander GustafssonvsJimi ManuwaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · Saturday, March 8, 2014London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:18

Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsJimi Manuwa: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jimi Manuwa wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimi Manuwa at +450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jimi Manuwa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Gustafsson

Red Corner

Jimi Manuwa

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1430

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Jimi ManuwaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Corey Anderson · Mar 17

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jul 17

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 18

KOvs Thiago Santos · Dec 18

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Jun 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander GustafssonMetricJimi Manuwa

4.03

Strikes / min

3.43

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

51%

Strike defense

49%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

0.53

83%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Jimi Manuwa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.2|Blue -57.2

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander GustafssonTargetJimi Manuwa

By target zone

44% acc · 76%

Head

29% acc · 31%

100% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 8%

60% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 62%

By position

39% acc · 57%

Distance

57% acc · 92%

71% acc · 24%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

80% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

even

Jimi Manuwa rounds

Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:23

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 43

Sig Strikes

13 / 23

49%

Sig Str %

58%

40 / 63

Total Strikes

15 / 25

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jimi Manuwa	7 / 10	9 / 12	0 / 0
1	Alexander Gustafsson	11 / 20	29 / 39	1 / 2
2	Jimi Manuwa	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0
2	Alexander Gustafsson	10 / 23	11 / 24	0 / 0

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Jimi Manuwa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12