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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · SUB R1

Elo1430

Elo1357

Alexander GustafssonvsJames Te HunaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · Saturday, February 26, 2011Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsJames Te Huna: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: James Te Huna wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Te Huna at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
James Te Huna enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
James Te Huna has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alexander Gustafsson has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Alexander Gustafsson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Gustafsson

Red Corner

James Te Huna

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1430

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

James Te HunaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Jimmo · Feb 13

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 13

KOvs Mauricio Rua · Dec 13

SUBvs Nate Marquardt · Jun 14

KOvs Steve Bosse · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander GustafssonMetricJames Te Huna

4.03

Strikes / min

4.04

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

51%

Strike defense

62%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

2.75

83%

Takedown defense

58%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander GustafssonJames Te Huna

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)James Te Huna(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +73.9|Blue -73.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander GustafssonTargetJames Te Huna

By target zone

44% acc · 100%

Head

100% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

Clinch

67% acc · 100%

Ground

100% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

even

James Te Huna rounds

Round 1James Te Huna edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:58

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:54Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

6 / 6

44%

Sig Str %

100%

17 / 22

Total Strikes

34 / 34

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 4

50%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

2:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Te Huna	6 / 6	34 / 34	1 / 4	0
1	Alexander Gustafsson	4 / 9	17 / 22	1 / 2	2

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

James Te Huna

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9