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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1430

Elo1450

Alexander GustafssonvsGlover TeixeiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · Sunday, May 28, 2017Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 1:07

Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsGlover Teixeira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Glover Teixeira wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Glover Teixeira at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Glover Teixeira threatens submissions; Alexander Gustafsson has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alexander Gustafsson has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Gustafsson

Red Corner

Glover Teixeira

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1430

Elo

1450

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Glover TeixeiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · May 20

SUBvs Thiago Santos · Nov 20

SUBvs Jan Blachowicz · Oct 21

SUBvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 22

vs Jamahal Hill · Jan 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander GustafssonMetricGlover Teixeira

4.03

Strikes / min

3.73

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

4.43

51%

Strike defense

51%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

2.11

83%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander GustafssonGlover Teixeira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Glover Teixeira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.4|Blue +19.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander GustafssonTargetGlover Teixeira

By target zone

39% acc · 79%

Head

28% acc · 81%

52% acc · 11%

Body

70% acc · 17%

90% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

39% acc · 79%

Distance

31% acc · 93%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

38% acc · 7%

81% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

even

Glover Teixeira rounds

Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:23

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control1:34

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

0Knockdowns

Round 4Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:52

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

97 / 228

Sig Strikes

42 / 134

42.8%

Sig Str %

31.8%

108 / 239

Total Strikes

62 / 155

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 5

25%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:50

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Glover Teixeira	5 / 25	5 / 25	1 / 3
1	Alexander Gustafsson	14 / 42	14 / 42	0 / 0
2	Glover Teixeira	17 / 47	17 / 47	0 / 2
2	Alexander Gustafsson	17 / 58	19 / 60	0 / 0
3	Glover Teixeira	8 / 27	22 / 42	0 / 0
3	Alexander Gustafsson	32 / 62	36 / 66	1 / 2
4	Alexander Gustafsson	27 / 52	32 / 57	0 / 1
4	Glover Teixeira	9 / 28	15 / 34	0 / 0
5	Glover Teixeira	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0
5	Alexander Gustafsson	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 0

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Glover Teixeira

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights23