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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · SUB R4

Elo1430

Elo1485

Alexander GustafssonvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · Saturday, June 1, 2019Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

SUB · Round 4 · 2:38

Model Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Gustafsson at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alexander Gustafsson has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Gustafsson

Red Corner

Anthony Smith

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1430

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander GustafssonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander GustafssonMetricAnthony Smith

4.03

Strikes / min

3.19

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

5.04

51%

Strike defense

44%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

0.44

83%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 2.35 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander GustafssonAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -54.6|Blue +54.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander GustafssonTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

33% acc · 36%

Head

31% acc · 39%

38% acc · 11%

Body

58% acc · 22%

75% acc · 53%

Leg

83% acc · 39%

By position

48% acc · 97%

Distance

45% acc · 90%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

even

Anthony Smith rounds

Round 1Anthony Smith edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control0:38

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Anthony Smith edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:24Control

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 151

Sig Strikes

49 / 104

45%

Sig Str %

50%

73 / 152

Total Strikes

51 / 107

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

1:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Smith	13 / 26	13 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Alexander Gustafsson	8 / 27	8 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Alexander Gustafsson	19 / 39	19 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Smith	13 / 34	13 / 34	0 / 1	0
3	Anthony Smith	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	Alexander Gustafsson	38 / 71	39 / 72	1 / 1	0
4	Anthony Smith	8 / 12	10 / 15	0 / 0	1
4	Alexander Gustafsson	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 2	0

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25