← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Anthony Johnson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1430

Elo1491

Alexander GustafssonvsAnthony JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · Saturday, January 24, 2015Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Anthony Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:15

Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsAnthony Johnson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Anthony Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Gustafsson at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Gustafsson

Red Corner

Anthony Johnson

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1430

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Anthony Johnson

oldest →

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 15

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 15

KOvs Ryan Bader · Jan 16

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Aug 16

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander GustafssonMetricAnthony Johnson

4.03

Strikes / min

3.25

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

1.83

51%

Strike defense

60%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

2.43

83%

Takedown defense

77%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander GustafssonAnthony Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Anthony Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.3|Blue +60.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander GustafssonTargetAnthony Johnson

By target zone

50% acc · 80%

Head

64% acc · 97%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 20%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 30%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

Ground

81% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

even

Anthony Johnson rounds

Round 1Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 20

Sig Strikes

30 / 47

50%

Sig Str %

63%

10 / 20

Total Strikes

38 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Johnson	30 / 47	38 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	Alexander Gustafsson	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0	0

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Anthony Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11