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Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko won · U-DEC R5

Elo1512

Elo1526

Alexa GrassovsValentina ShevchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexa Grasso: Pressure fightervsValentina Shevchenko: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valentina Shevchenko at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexa Grasso

Red Corner

Valentina Shevchenko

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1512

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

SUBvs Joanne Wood · Mar 22

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Valentina ShevchenkoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Lauren Murphy · Sep 21

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexa GrassoMetricValentina Shevchenko

4.11

Strikes / min

3.04

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

58%

Strike defense

63%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

2.65

54%

Takedown defense

76%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexa GrassoValentina Shevchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexa GrassoTargetValentina Shevchenko

By target zone

11% acc · 44%

Head

54% acc · 84%

30% acc · 17%

Body

60% acc · 7%

44% acc · 39%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

16% acc · 89%

Distance

54% acc · 87%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

67% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexa Grasso rounds

even

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:28Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:57Control

Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:24

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:56Control

Round 5Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:25

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 100

Sig Strikes

45 / 80

17%

Sig Str %

50.6%

153 / 245

Total Strikes

193 / 233

1 / 4

TDs

8 / 12

25%

TD %

80%

Sub Att

Rev

0:49

Ctrl Time

16:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Valentina Shevchenko	10 / 18	36 / 45	1 / 1	0
1	Alexa Grasso	2 / 19	14 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Valentina Shevchenko	3 / 8	29 / 36	2 / 2	0
2	Alexa Grasso	2 / 13	41 / 56	0 / 0	1
3	Valentina Shevchenko	16 / 26	35 / 46	1 / 2	0
3	Alexa Grasso	5 / 35	21 / 51	0 / 0	0
4	Alexa Grasso	1 / 12	23 / 34	0 / 0	1
4	Valentina Shevchenko	2 / 5	65 / 69	1 / 1	0
5	Valentina Shevchenko	14 / 23	28 / 37	3 / 6	0
5	Alexa Grasso	8 / 21	54 / 71	1 / 4	0

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18